Indian Market Outlook Final 2019

Indian Market Outlook Final 2019

Indian Market Outlook Final 2019

2019 Debt and Equity Markets start positive. Key question is on sustenance.
CY 2018 turned out to be a year that most investors would like to look over. Both equity and debt markets provided a muted performance along with INR depreciation. Either way, investors holding Indian assets had to compromise on their returns. We would like to begin the year by providing a simplistic perspective of what has transpired, the positives and negatives that await 2019, and our opinion on portfolio positioning beside the key factors that will help change our investment thesis.

1. Recap Year 2018

1. Equity Market Performance.

Equity Market Performance
  1. Debt Markets reflected a rise in yields impacting the valuations on longer maturities.
Debt Markets

3. Emerging market currencies showed sharp depreciation

Market Currencies

4. Micro market behaviour within equity markets

Sector Performance

2. Our view on market behaviour in 2018

  1. Lower liquidity by Central Banks and Rising rates, thereby reducing the rate gap between safe assets and equity assets.
Central Banks and Rising rates

2. Central bank balance sheet size shrinking

Central bank balance sheet

3. Gap between equity and benchmark 10 year yield increasing.

4. High oil prices, thereby a current account deficit that ballooned during the year.

High oil prices

3. Positives and negatives that await 2019

Positives and negatives

Positioning Portfolios

1. Debt
2. Equity
5. Diversification As Theme

6. Factors to look out for

7. Important data points

Important data points

8. References of events impacting 2019

1. Elections
2. Other events
Other events

All graphs in the note has been sourced from ICICI AMC outlook 2019 and IDFC AMC outlook 2019. The note has been prepared and updated as on 18 Jan 19.


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The information herein is derived from publicly available sources that Trufid considers reliable but which has not been independently verified.

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Expressions of opinion are those of Trufid only and are subject to change without notice.

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